The Republican Party has enjoyed two years of total control of all three branches of government, and a majority of state legislatures across the country. The party, for the most part, has fallen in line and followed President Trump’s orders when it comes to policy, politics, and even style of behaving in public–which is to say, badly, based on any normal person’s moral compass. 

But this year, the president became a drag on his party’s electoral chances because of broken economic and no-more-war promises. He did more damage to himself than Democrats ever could.

As Election Day approaches, what is the Republican Party’s next move? What happens if they lose both or just one chamber of Congress? Or win everything (unlikely)? The outcome of the midterms will help determine their path forward. 

Election Night—or the next day

You don’t need a crystal ball to see the high likelihood that the president or GOP candidates will claim, without evidence, a state’s election was rigged, stolen, etc. They’ve already floated the idea, early and often. A prolonged legal or recount process in one or more states should not be dismissed. States have between 7 and 45 days–it depends on the state– to certify their election results. 

The question is, should a legal challenge arise, will the GOP keep a legal challenge/ recount going (with legal weight that effects the outcome of the race), or simply make noise and try to win the PR war (unserious legally, but still potent, challenge)? Either would likely further erode confidence in election integrity ahead of 2028. 

Post-Election Scenarios 

Scenario 1: The rebuild 

Suffering losses, many in the party finally decide enough is enough and they dump Trump politically. They move in a different direction, at least rhetorically, that focuses on their constituents’ cost-of-living and quality-of-life concerns. Small, or big, cracks in the conservative coalition can be done publicly (unlikely) or privately (more subtle, smarter). Trump becomes a premature “lame duck” in people’s minds, despite his tantric cries for attention. JD Vance and others begin their 2028 presidential bids, which unofficially begin the day after next week’s election.

Scenario 2: Status Quo

The party doesn’t do anything materially differently, even if they lose one or both chambers. Trump stays ringleader; elected Republicans in the Beltway continue to fall in line. The Administration, members of Congress, and others will continue their autocratic project, even accelerating it. 

Scenario 3: Hybrid, with two distinct camps forming

The ‘28 presidential aspirants will have to separate themselves from Trump, who will likely remain radioactive as long as prices stay high, wars continue, and AI is allowed to wreck havoc by the government. Some (many?) Republicans want to turn the page and will jump on the bandwagon of fresh talent and ideas. It’s conceivable that you have two shows going at once: the Trump Show, stale but in its 100th season, and “Heir Apparent,” the pilot about the next round of conservatives running for president.